The New Cold War

When Vladimir Putin succeeded Boris Yeltsin as President of Russia, he was certainly not a well-hailed individual.

Previously, Putin had served as an advisor for the Mayor of St Petersburg. Despite a potentially career-breaking scandal, Putin continued to climb through the upper echelons of the Mayor's office before moving on to Moscow after an unsuccessful attempt to win the Mayor's office for himself.

In 1999, Yeltsin appointed Putin as a deputy Prime Minister of Russia and, later on in the very day of this appointment, made him Prime Minister. Within four months, Putin would be President.

Putin ensured continued political successes by uniting a broad collection of small political parties -- post-Soviet Russian politics have been marked by the spread of tiny political parties supported by wealthy sponsors -- into the formidable United Russia party. While never formally becoming a member of the party, he did take full advantage of it.

With support of individuals such as Dmitri Medvedev, Putin wielded Presidential and legislative power with an iron fist. Political rivals and critics in the business world were ruthlessly marginalized.

When the Russian Constitution disqualified Putin from continuing his reign as President (the Russian Constitution limits Presidents to serving two consecutive terms), Putin hand-picked Medvedev to succeed him.

Underlying the Medvedev/Putin regime is an ideology that has come to be described as Sovereign Democracy.

This ideology of "sovereign democracy" is built on a foundation of historical revisonism, xenophobia, anti-westernism, Russian exceptionalism, and political relativism.

Vladimir Putin is widely famed for his comments describing the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geo-political disaster of the 20th century. Political and historical relativism have been at the heart of Putin's efforts to rehabilitate the reputation of the Soviet Union, comparing historical atrocities committed in the Soviet Union with historical deeds of other countries that often have little or no equivalence.

The idea is rather simple: whereas the governments of other countries have encouraged citizens to address past wrongdoings, Putin has insisted that Russia will never be made to feel ashamed of its past.

Putin's political organization has kept an arm's length distance from organizations that treat many of Russia's geographically closer adversaries -- such as Georgia -- in a xenophobic manner. Racial tensions are routinely stirred up by youth organizations that have come to be widely referred to as the Putin Youth -- an obvious, if sensational, play on the Hitler youth of Nazi Germany.

Putin has also consolidated his power by forever portraying Western countries as belligerent hypocrites. Putin and his party have interpreted the expansion of NATO into the former Eastern Bloc as an act of aggression against Russia, and they have not hesitated to share this idea with the Russian people.

The ideology of "Sovereign democracy" also stands on a notion of Russian exceptionalism that predates the Russian Czars. This notion is the ancient belief that Moscow is the "third Rome" that will stand as the last outpost and defender of the message of Jesus Christ. This idea permeated the Czarist period of Russian history. In fact, "Czar" is actually Russian shorthand for "Caesar".

Like with American foreign policy, this idea of Russian exceptionalism -- like American exceptionalism heavily influenced by religion, in this case the Russian Orthodox Church -- has led to an aggressive foreign policy. However, while the purpose of the aggressive American foreign policy tends to be the promotion of Americanized democracy, the purpose of an aggressive foreign policy is to eliminate the threats posed to Russia.

The Russian ideology of "sovereign democracy" has strengthened a political environment in which political processes exist not to decide who holds power, but to maintain incumbent's grip on power, and justify it.

Russia is not the only country in which this idea of "sovereign democracy" is being used to horde political power.

Leaders such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez have also adapted this notion of "sovereign democracy" within their own countries, and countries like Iran seem to be moving in the same direction.

As authors such as Edward Lucas have noted, Russia's economic and military strong-arm tactics are increasingly posing a potential threat to the Western World. He isn't alone in issuing this warning.

Gary Kasparov has also issued a dire warning about Vladimir Putin's iron grip on Russia. It is a warning that should not be ignored.

Trouble Bubbling in Russia?

Gary Kasparov predicts Russian uprising

With Russians increasingly feeling the pinch of the economic crisis, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin may be set to face some unexpected opposition.

But that opposition may not necessarily come from the Russian people -- the United Russia party has enjoyed spectacularly strong support from Russians ever since Putin helped engineer its genesis by uniting hundreds of smaller right-of-centre parties. Instead, that opposition may come from the most unlikely source imaginable -- from Putin's own hand-picked President, Dmitri Medvedev.

A worsening economic situation in Russia -- one that has Russia's oil oligarchs hemoraging money -- may be making Putin particularly vulnerable.

"It's a very fragile system, and Putin could well become a scapegoat for a lot of people inside the elites," muses Solidarinost leader Gary Kasparov. "Whether or not he genuinely wants to, we could see Medvedev emerge as a sort of perestroika leader."

Signs of a rift between Putin and Medvedev have been creeping into public view recently.

Medvedev recently questioned many of Putin's accomplishments during his time as President.

"It's easy to work when there are high revenues, above all from oil and gas exports," Medvedev recently said. "It's like you're not doing anything yourself, yet the profit just keeps coming in. That's great. But now it's important, first, to show that we can learn to spend money – budget money – rationally, and second, to be competent managers."

Of course Putin didn't always benefit from sky-high oil and gas revenues. He first came to office in 1999 when the Russian ruble had collapsed and the Russian economy was at an all-time low.

But Medvedev has been criticizing Putin an awful lot lately. He may be eyeing his Prime Minister as particularly vulnerable.

Medvedev has even ordered revision of a bill that would define treason in a manner that could cast political opposition as treasonous. This was one of Putin's bills.

"This was a key piece of Putinist legislation," says Kasparov. "It would've meant that people like me could easily be rounded up and arrested for treason. It's very significant that Medvedev and his allies have blocked it."

This is a significant change from less than two months ago when Medvedev helped push changes to Russia's Presidential term that would clearly pave the way for Putin to re-take the Presidency and hold it for another twelve years.

Putin's own role within the United Russia party -- he's always kept the party at arms length as much as possible -- could even turn out to be a serious liability for him if a power struggle with Medvedev really does materialize.

For his own part, Kasparov doesn't rule out the possibility of a mass revolt against Putin and Medvedev.

"People have had a stable life and still think that things will get better again," says Kasparov. "I expect the first waves of protests to start in earnest in March or April."

If Medvedev catches signs of such a revolt ahead of time, one can imagine that it would only hasten any machinations against Putin. But by the same token, Putin is known to be an extremely savvy political operator. There's no way he'll allow himself to be scapegoated without a fight.

Whether the Russian people turn on Medvedev and Putin or the two of them turn on each other, it's certain that the real winner will be Gary Kasparov and Solidarinost.

One can count on the Chess Grandmaster being prepared to take advantage.

Gary Kasparov Revives Solidarity

Kasparov's opposition party may be the last chance to defeat Putin

Historical mythology holds that Ronald Reagan was the man who won the Cold War. Even if this is the case -- a matter of some debate -- for many historical scholars, Reagan was not the man who ended it.

In the minds of some, that distinction belongs to Lech Wealsea, the leader of Solidary. In 1989, Walsea led Solidarity to leadership of a coalition government in Poland in the first free elections held in that country since the end of the Second World War.

When asked what the Soviet government planned to do about it, then-President Mikhail Gorbachev said it would do nothing. To many, Gorbachev's acceptance of a non-communist labour union/political party winning an election in the eastern European bloc marked the formal conclusion of the Cold War, the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back.

One has to imagine that legacy is on Gary Kasparov's mind as he's taken Solidarity as the name for a bold new effort to defeat the United Russia party of Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev.

Kasparov is no newcomer to such efforts. He attempted to run in the most recent Russian Presidential elections, but was prevented from doing so through some rather unsavoury machinations by the Russian state.

"We are fighting for victory because we have something to say to our people and something to offer them," Kasparov announced. "On this very day, we are in a position to take stock of past mistakes and act differently."

"One of the tasks of the Solidarity movement is to rehabilitate those basic principles that, unfortunately, for a significant or even overwhelming portion of our fellow citizens, have become associated with failure, misery or reduction of freedom," he added.

Unfortuantely, Kasparov has an uphill battle to wage. With no seats in the Duma and the Russian government currently making it more difficult for opposition parties to win representation, it will prove excessively difficult for Solidarity to have the effect that Kasparov so desires.

Kasparov isn't alone in his predicament of being outside the Duma looking in. Yaklobo and the SPS (roughly translated as Union of Right Forces) were both weeded out of the Duma when the 5% rule that had set the lower limit for receiving seats in the proportionately-elected Duma at 5% of the vote was abolished in favour of a 7% rule -- only one recent move intended to increase United Russia's dominance in that chamber.

Another item on United Russia's agenda is a move to change the length of Presidential tenures from four to six years. With well over two-thirds of the Duma -- a Russian constitutional majority that allows United Russia to pass amendments to the Russian constitution -- there's little hope of derailing this process.

According to Russian law, Vladimir Putin will become eligible for the Presidency again once he's finished his brief time out as Russian Prime Minister. Upon winning the Presidency, Putin could serve for another 12 years.

In forming Solidarity, Kasparov is turning Putin's own tactics against him. While never officially associating with United Russia, Putin was instrumental in the uniting of hundreds of small conservative parties into the electoral powerhouse. Now, Kasparov is trying to do the same with Russia's numerous liberal parties.

Even if they understand the essence of time in restoring Russian democracies, other leaders in the new Solidarity movement seem to have abandoned any hope of accomplishing their goals expediently.

"We might not be able to launch an Orange Revolution right now, but we can certainly create an orange organization," mused Valeriya Novodvorskaya. The Orange Revolution, as most should recall, resulted in the ascension of Ukranian president Viktor Yushchenko.

While no electoral coalition capable of defeating United Russia can be built over night, Kasparov, Novodvorskaya and company need to come to terms quickly with the realities facing them. If allowed to reassume the Presidency under the proposed conditions, Vladimir Putin could conceivably serve for the remainder of his life.

Kasparov must make his case to the Russian people as quickly as possible. As Al Jazeera reports, Russian political culture, traditionally authoritarian in nature, may be taking an even starker despotic turn as Russians seem set to vote Joseph Stalin as one of the greatest Russians of all time.

Even more disturbingly, while Putin and Medvedev's efforts to eliminate the political threat posed by Kasparov will almost certainly be enshrined as legendary examples of political oppression, the Russian government seems to feel few compunctions about allowing Neo Nazi parties to march publicly.

Gary Kasparov has an uphill battle ahead of him. Hopefully, the wits of this Chess Grand Master are up to the challenge.