Canadian Conservatism's Troubled Symmetry

Two provinces, two parties, two different directions, and one big problem for Canadian Conservatives

While Alberta's Wildrose Alliance was meeting this past weekend to elect Danielle Smith the new leader of the party, another provincial conservative party was meeting to elect its leader.

The Action Democratique du Quebec met and elected Gilles Taillon as its new leader -- only the second in its entire history.

There are many similarities between the circumstances faced by the two parties, and each leader.

Each party has few seats in the provincial legislature, and each faces the monumental task of building its organization. Unfortunately for the ADQ, this is where the similarities stop.

The Wildrose Alliance is coming off of an exciting and vibrant leadership campaign in which ideas were strongly contested between the two competitors: namely, whether the party would proceed in a libertarian or social conservative direction (the party chose the course of libertarianism).

The ADQ, meanwhile, is stumbling out of a leadership contest in which personal animosity and smear politics seemed to be the order of the day.

While the Alliance leadership campaign attracted national attention, the ADQ contest was largely invisible on the national stage.

If Smith's election as the leader of the Alliance is truly one of the most exciting developments in the history of Canadian conservatism, the election of Taillon as the ADQ leader was purely underwhelming. This is unfortunate not only for the ADQ, but for Canadian conservatism as a whole.

In Daifallah's estimation, Taillon's prospects as the leader of the ADQ are sorely limited by a number of factors.

"Taillon is well-known, but he’s an uninspiring choice for a party looking to renew. He’s the oldest of the three major Quebec party leaders, questions about his health abound and he lost his seat in the National Assembly in the last election," Daifallah notes. "His politics are decidedly centrist. If he has his way, there will likely be little difference between the ADQ and the Parti Québécois. A number of prominent conservative ADQ members have already quit since Sunday."

"Taillon’s centrist approach is particularly unfortunate given that more and more Quebecers are coming to realize the unsustainability of their massive welfare programs and statist business model," Daifallah continues. "The prospects in Quebec for a party advocating smaller government and more personal responsibility should improve in the coming years."

The problem is that, unless Taillon steers his party back away from the centre, Quebec will have no such party to take advantage of such an ideological shift in the province.

Quebec is one of two provinces in Canada with no active provincial Conservative party. In Saskatchewan the banner of conservative politics is being carried by Brad Wall's Saskatchewan party. Although a provincial Progressive Conservative party remains registered, it doesn't run candidates.

If one considers provinces where a provincial Conservative party remains active but is politically marginal, the case of British Columbia stands out as well.

Likewise, the decimation of the New Brunswick PCs -- a ship since righted by Bernard Lord -- by the Confederation of Regions party isn't as far in past as many New Brunswick Tories would like to pretend.

If Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Alliance are successful, Alberta could soon be added to this list. Historically when Albertans have changed governments they practically erase the preceding government. Social Credit and the United Farmers of Alberta were once mighty political forces. Today Social Credit is entirely peripheral to Albertan politics.

The problem that quickly emerges is not for Canadian conservatives, but rather for Canadian Conservatives. While cross-party cooperation in matters of federal politics is far from ruled out, it can be politically perilous for conservative politicians -- particularly in Saskatchewan, and possibly soon in Alberta -- to be seen working too closely with the federal incarnation of a party they have either worked so hard to depose (as would be the case in Alberta) or has a troubled history (as is the case in Saskatchewan).

It can be particularly unseemingly in terms of the recruitment of federal candidates out of provincial ranks. While such a transition is far from unheard of -- in particular, federal Conservative MP Tom Lukiwski was formerly the General Manager of the Saskatchewan party.

By comparison, however, the Liberal party and NDP each have provincial parties in every province in Canada. While the Liberal party isn't particularly strong in Alberta, or especially in Saskatchewan, it can freely shuttle candidates back and forth between provincial and federal parties. A clear example is Dr Eric Hoskins, who was an unsuccessful federal candidate before running for the McGuinty Liberals in St Paul's.

In Quebec and Saskatchewan the Tories may get occasional help from the Saskatchewan party or the ADQ, but it has to do the bulk of its organizing and recruitment entirely on its own.

Provincial parties also offer the potential advantage -- or disadvantage -- of having another party to help build the brand image. If there is a shift underway the likes of which Daifallah suggests, the Conservative party currently has no provincial party there to help them take advantage of this shift.

It's on this note that it would perhaps be partially irrelevant if Quebec had a conservative leader like Danielle Smith -- at least for capital-C Conservatives. For small-c conservatives, it would be like a dream.

But like any political movement, conservatives fare best when they work together. Anything that impedes that kind of cooperation should properly be viewed as an impediment -- even if an impediment that some conservatives will view as a necessary evil.

It's long been past time for Canadian conservatives to learn to moderate themselves from within their provincial parties, as opposed to having to build entire vote- and activist-splitting alternative parties.

Time to Start Getting the Message, Ed

Barbarians not at the gates -- yet

In the world of Albertan politics, few people's words carry more weight than that of Preston Manning.

So when Manning speculates that Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Alliance may very well be a serious threat to Premier Ed Stelmach and the Progressive Conservative party, it's time for Stelmach to listen.

Stelmach's state of mind in the wake of Smith's victory to become the leader of the Alliance has been a matter of some speculation. Stelmach insists he isn't worried about the Alliance.

"It's like when you get into a hockey game," he recently told reporters. "You get all pumped for it. There'll be a lot said, but we're still focused on our plan for Alberta. We still have a sizeable majority. The people gave us a strong mandate to do what's right for Albertans."

"We have a sizable majority; people gave us a strong mandate to do what's right for all Albertans," Stelmach added more recently. "We'll continue to do that."

Of course, if a mandate is a static notion, Stelmach would be entirely correct. In teh 2008 provincial election won 53% of the popular vote -- albeit in an election in which few Albertans voted.

But if one were to accept an argument that the notion of a mandate is a more of a living sentiment of whom the citizenry have entrusted with the moral authority to govern, one could make the argument that Stelmach's mandate has been significantly eroded.

Of course no reasonable individual expects a government to govern according to polls. And with the Conservative party still commanding the support of 38% of Albertans -- still a plurality -- the Tories remain well-situated to continue governing.

“You have to keep in mind the Conservatives still lead in all categories,” says Faron Ellis, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge. “The barbarians are not at the gates of the legislature just yet.”

But the key words should be considered "just yet".

Preston Manning -- an individual who could well have become Premier in Stelmach's place, if he had opted to enter the contest -- has recently noted that Stelmach's government appears tired and troubled in the eyes of Albertans, and all Smith needs to do is present appealing policy to become an ominous threat.

"We're halfway there in the sense that there is a party that's been long in office and does appear to be struggling to have anything new or different to contribute," Manning mused. "It has yet to be seen whether the Wildrose Alliance has the other side of the equation."

When Paul Hinman, Smith's successor as leader of the Wildrose Alliance, won the recent by-election in Calgary-Elbow, he won on a campaign slogan that encouraged voters in the riding to "send a message to Ed".

If as luminous an authority on Albertan politics as Preston Manning believes Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Alliance could become a threat to the Alberta Tories, it's time for Ed to start getting that message.

Danielle Smith and the Future of Alberta, Redux

Wildrose Alliance leader offers vision of citizens' democracy

When the Wildrose Alliance met in Edmonton yesterday to choose their new leader, they made what many people had judged to be the predictable choice.

Danielle Smith will lead Alberta's new conservative opposition, which may soon be Alberta's Official Opposition.

Smith has already promised a new era of accountability for Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservative government -- but only because she and her party are prepared to make them accountable.

"We see in these waning years of the Progressive Conservative era how badly leaders and caucuses behave when they are beyond any requirement to account regularly for their decisions," she announced. "Ed Stelmach, you haven't begun to imagine what's about to hit you!"

"We're going to give Albertans back their province and we're going to give them back their pride," she added. "My number 1 job is to turn Alberta back into a real democracy once again."

Smith's vision for Albertan democracy is one, unsurprisingly, of small government that is responsive to the demands of citizens -- one in which business and citizenry are "encouraged" to solve problems on their own.

In particular, Smith's views on climate change fully reflect this paradigm.

"If it makes sense financially, if consumers feel good about it, if it has the overall impact of reducing emissions -- whether or not you're going to focus on Kyoto or Copenhagen or whatever the latest climate scientists have to say, or the IPCC -- it doesn't really matter to me," Smith explained. "To me, it's quite clear that Albertans want to move in that direction. Whether you want to do it to save money or save the environment, I think it's something we should be focusing on, energy efficiency."

It isn't the kind of attitude one would expect from a party widely being treated as arch-conservative, and will almost certainly be treated as unacceptable by those who insist that the only tolerable reason for reducing carbon emissions.

The specifics of the kind of plan Smith would propose for the reduction of carbon emssions has yet to be seen, and will likely await a party policy convention. But one can fully expect that Smith -- a committed libertarian -- will favour a solution that will focus on providing incentive for business and citizens alike to reduce their emissions.

Once an expect the bulk of Wildrose Alliance policy to reflect this particular paradigm -- less like Hugh Segal's "nation and enterprise" and more like "citizen and enterprise".

In choosing Danielle Smith over the socially conservative Mark Dyrholm, the rapidly-growing membership of the Wilrose Alliance may well be choosing these libertarian ideals not only as the future of their party, but possibly even as the future of Alberta.


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Craig Chandler: Martyred Again?

Craig Chandler, Mark Dyrholm complain of media bias

As the Wildrose Alliance creeps closer still to their leadership convention some have speculated that Danielle Smith's momentum may be insurmountable.

With few options and less time, Smith's opponent Mark Dyrholm and his campaign strategist, Craig Chandler, are resorting to an unfortunately popular tactic among conservative politicians: blame the media.

Dyrholm and Chandler have fingered a broad rogue's gallery amongst the Albertan media: CanWest Global executive producer and managing editor David Moretta (who is also Smith's husband), Global Calgary news director Jeff Bollenbach, Calgary Herald columnist Nigel Hannaford, Nanton News editor Sheena Read, Troy Media Corporation columnist Doug Firby and 630 CHED commentator Lesley Primeau.

Chandler and Dyrholm sound as if they're alleging a mass conspiracy in Smith's favour -- one that includes the husbands and wives of various news commentators, including Smith herself.

And while Dyrholm and Chandler are both entirely right to note that journalists ought to be removed from situations where their personal biases may influence point-of-fact news reporting, they seem to be largely off target.

As Bollenbach notes, Moretta very much has been removed from decision-making regarding the coverage of the Alliance leadership campaign.

Meanwhile Hallaford, Firby and Primeau are opinion journalists. It's their job to present their individual viewpoints. While accounting for the source of their bias is certainly laudable, that bias itself is part of their job. Complaining about bias in commentary is actually rather insipid.

If Chandler wasn't so fixated on identifying enemies within the media perhaps he would be able to assess his own skills in dealing with the media. For example, minding one's own appearance when dealing with journalism is generally considered to be a good idea. In the SE Calgary News video Chandler appears unshaven.

Chandler has a long history of discomfort dealing with the media. One would think that, at some point, he would invest in his public relations skills.

The truth is that Danielle Smith's campaign isn't outperforming Mark Dyrholm's because of media bias. Rather, she's outperforming Dyrholm because her campaign and her ideas are more appealing.

Media martyrdom may serve to energize one's base. But it generally makes for poor politics.


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The Wildrose Alliance and the Future of Alberta's Left

"Unite the left" campaign reemerges in Alberta

When Paul Hinman unexpectedly won the Calgary-Glenmore by-election, virtually everything was said to have changed for conservative politics in Alberta.

Amidst reports that up to 10 Tory MLAs may defect to the Alliance and that Guy Boutilier may join, the Alliance has jumped to second place in the polls.

Clearly, with all of this going on, the Wildrose Alliance clearly believes the Tories are vulnerable. But they aren't alone.

Speaking in Red Deer, Alvin Finkel, the co-chairperson of the self-styled group calling itself the Democratic Renewal Project has renewed calls for a united left-of-centre alternative to the Stelmach Tories, insists that uniting the Liberal, NDP and any willing independents is the only way to defeat them.

Moreover, Finkel must recognize that time is of the essence. If some kind of arrangement -- be it a merger or a Manning-esque electoral coalition -- isn't reached, the improving fortunes of the Wildrose Alliance could leave the provincial Liberals and NDP simply facing a new conservative monoliith, with the same dim prospects of defeating it as before.

Fellow DRP member Phil Elder argues that contention between the Alliance and PCs could lead to a tremendous opportunity for Alberta's left-of-centre parties.

Moreover, he takes NDP leader Brian Mason to task for arguing at the recent NDP convention that the party could overcome vote-splitting with the Liberals by working hard over future election campaigns.

"Did Mr Mason mean to imply (wrongly) that under his leadership NDPers have merely not worked long and hard enough to win?" Elder asks. "Or, after eleven consecutive Conservative majority victories, have Mason and the New Democrat executive not yet learned the obvious lesson that splitting the vote is fatal?"

Indeed, the NDP convention rendered cooperation between the two parties to be a dead issue, even after Hinman's unexpected victory.

The quickly-shifting political atmosphere in the province, courtesy of the Wildrose Alliance's improving fortunes, should provide further impetus for Brian Mason and the NDP to reconsider their options on forming an electoral coalition.

In Alberta, the political game could be changing for the first time in nearly forty years. Whether or not it changes in the Liberals' and NDP's favour will depend entirely on them.


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Wildrose Alliance Attracting Big Fish...

...And lots of them

As the Alberta Progressive Conservatives look on at the Wildrose Allaicne leadership campaign they must be feeling a certain combination of fascination and trepidation.

As the Alberta Alliance and the Wildrose party, the Alliance is a party that has dwelled on the margins of Albertan politics. But as popular discontent with the leadership of Ed "Stalemate" Stelmach is spreading, so is the membership of the Alliance.

In June, the party had a mere 1,800 members. Now, the party's leadership has exploded, adding 10,200 members in the intervening months.

But amongst the masses flocking to the Alliance are conservative magnates such as Tom Flanagan and Betty Unger. And most recently, former Alberta Minister of Public Works and Agriculture Ernie Isley has joined the party.

Isley has, in particular, pointed toward the Stelmach government's approach to health care.

"[You] give up a billion dollars in revenue and then shortly thereafter you start coming up with a program whereby you're going to make your seniors pay more for prescription drugs. That doesn't seem to me to be the direction to go," Isley explained. "We appear to be going through the slash-and-burn era of the early '90s."

The vibrant conservative debate taking place between Danielle Smith and Mark Dyrholm has a lot to do with the new loyalties the party has been attracting.

Although sonme of the predictable themes of conservative leadership campaigns have emerged -- with each candidate accusing one another of either being too extreme or too uncommitted -- the campaign is attracting a great deal of attention for a party that holds only one seat in the Legislature.

This very much could be taken as a sign that Albertans are finally ready for a change.

Or, in time, it could be just another case in which the promise of political change was snuffed out by the status quo.

Alberta's New Opposition?

Tory defections to Wildrose Alliance rumoured

In matters pertaining to Albertan politics, Paul McLoughlin tends to have the inside track.

McLoughlin recently made a prediction that has hit Albertan politics like an earthquake: if Danielle Smith wins the leadership of the Wildrose Alliance on October 17, 10 Progressive Conservative MLAs will cross the floor to join them.

This would instantly make Danielle Smith the new leader of the official opposition, as the party would have as many as 12 MLAs. With Paul Hinman's recent victory in Calgary and Guy Boutilier, should he do as he has suggested he may and join the Alliance, the party would leapfrog the Liberal party (who currently have 9 MLAs) to become the province's new official opposition.

This would almost certainly be the end of Mark Dyrholm's leadership ambitions, as the party would literally have too much to lose by choosing him over Smith.

Of course, the Calgary Herald's Don Braid isn't buying the hype, even despite McLoughlin's strong track record -- his predictions tend to be correct.

Braid notes that even under the nadir of the party, under Don Getty, there was no mass exodus from the Progressive Conservative party.

Then again, there was no increasingly-relevant conservative competition in Alberta at that time. As the Wildrose Allaince continues to attract high-profile supporters, its newfound relevance is making it increasingly dangerous.

Randy Hillier: Kingmaker in Cattle Country?

Hillier picks a horse in Wildrose Alliance race

Fresh out of helping Tim Hudak become the leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party, Randy Hillier has apparently decided to try his hand at kingmaking in another province.

Hillier has endorced Mark Dyrholm for the leadership of the Wildrose Alliance.

The Wildrose Alliance has been steadily picking up steam as the polish continues to wear off the governing Progressive Conservative party of Alberta. Four hundred people showed up to witness a debate in Calgary this week, as the party continues to collect supporters like Tom Flanagan, Phil Klein, and possibly another MLA in Guy Boutilier.

The Western Standard's Hugh MacIntyre reports that Hillier has sent emails endorsing Mark Dyrholm for the leadership of the party.

It may not seem intuitive to suggest that Randy Hillier may be able to exert some pull in this race. However, many observers of the Ontario PC leadership campaign credited Hillier for making the Ontario Human Rights Commission an issue Tim Hudak could capitalize on.

The Alberta Human Rights Commission is, likewise, an issue of some controversy among Albertan conservative circles. The Alberta Tories have provoked displasure among conservatives by conributing further material support for the activities of the AHRC, including the services of government-employed lawyers.

Dyrholm's principal opponent in the leadership contest, Danielle Smith, has taken a stance on the matter that seems very similar to the position that Christine Elliott took, favouring reform over abolition.

She has, however, offered far greater detail regarding what her reforms would entail, calling for an end to the censorship powers detailed in section three of the Alberta Human Rights Act.

"Now it's been perverted so that the human rights commission is delving into an area they shouldn't," said Smith. "They need to be reined in and get back to their original mandate."

Smith is also critical of Bill 44 -- the human rights legislation that would allow parents to withdraw their children from classrooms where religion or sexuality are being taught.

"The Minister [Lindsay Blackett] started out trying to make the human rights commission less powerful and ended up making it more powerful," Smith explained. "You'd think Alberta would be a leader in things like free speech, citizen participation in decision-making and democratic reform. But recent developments like Bill 44 suggest just the opposite."

Mark Dyrholm's position on Alberta's Human Rights Tribunal seems a little more ambiguous. He criticises section three, but doesn't seem to offer any particular prescription for how the HRC issue should be handled.

This, naturally, should make many Albertans wonder if Hillier has been in touch with Dyrholm on the subject and knows something about his position that the rest of Alberta doesn't.

To pretend that Randy Hillier's endorsement is going to decide the Wildrose Alliance leadership race is likely excessive. But it could certainly become a factor.

Just as Hillier helped Tim Hudak win the Ontario PC leadership by virtue of second-choice preference, Hillier could well help Mark Dyrholm win the Wildrose Alliance leadership on the strength of the Human Rights Commission controversy.


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Is Revolution the Big Idea in Alberta?

Paul Hinman's victory brings expectations of rolling Tory heads

Albertan conservatives discontented with Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservative government seem to have a new star in town.

The town is Calgary. And the star is Paul Hinman.

If Doug Firby is to be believed, Hinman's victory over Progressive Conservative candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart indeed represents the first shot in what Dan Arnold describes as "Alberta's revolution" -- and leading the revolutionary are magnates of the Albertan oilpatch.

"[It is] a resounding indictment of besieged Premier Ed Stelmach, who has failed to win the hearts of Calgary’s oil patch power elite – the same group who backed Jim Dinning in the December 2006 leadership contest that Stelmach won," Firby writes. "Stelmach will now almost certainly face serious questions about his ability to continue much longer as political head of the province."

Firby notes that what truly makes Hinman's win special is that it was done without much of the traditional partisan infrastructure in place.

"All the more remarkable is that Hinman won the seat, even though he had lost the party’s only seat in the last general election, bringing to an ignominious end his largely ineffective term as leader of the Wildrose Alliance," Firby continues. "In fact, the party was still nominally leaderless when the grumpy voters of Calgary-Glenmore went to the polls this week."

Adam Daifallah worries that Hinman's victory may be the first step in a long-overdue "political realignment" in Alberta.

The Alberta Conservatives, who have governed the province uninterrupted since 1971, look tired, complacent and vulnerable like never before," he writes. "To finish in third place, behind the normally irrelevant Liberals, in a Calgary riding is a serious embarrassment."

"Alberta is Canada's most conservative province; Calgary the country's most conservative big city," Daifallah reasons. "This fact partly explains the loss: Ed Stelmach's Tories have abandoned any semblance of conservatism. (One could argue that conservatism in Alberta was abandoned after Ralph Klein's first term as premier, but I digress.)"

Daifallah notes that the leadership candidacy of Danielle Smith is particularly troubling to the Alberta PCs.

"There is a clear constituency for a fiscally conservative message in Alberta at present -- not just due to Stelmach, but also because of what's happening in Ottawa," Daifallah continues. "As standard bearer for conservatives' sense of discontent, Smith would instantly become the darling of the Canadian right and make the Wildrose Alliance a serious challenger for power."

In the wake of Hinman's victory, the Wildrose Alliance seems to be drawing more than just media attention -- speculation is that their caucus in the Legislature may double with the addition of spurned former Tory Guy Boutilier.

Boutilier was recently ousted from the PC caucus for being too vocal about the government dragging its feet on a retirement home in Fort MacMurray.

"He represents true conservative values," Boutilier said of Hinman. "Right now, I represent my constituents of Fort McMurray and true conservative values."

To compare Hinman's victory to the 1988 Deborah Grey victory in Beaver River that foreshadowed Preston Manning and the Reform party's 1993 arrival as a political force in Ottawa may be a bit of a stretch.

But in the wake of the victory, Hinman and whomever winds up leading the Wildrose Alliance may be well advised to take Preston Manning's advice to the founding convention of the Canadian Alliance -- "Think big".

Right now, the Wildrose Alliance is a party with no leader, little money, and no track record of success.

In 1993, the Reform party had a leader with little public recognition, little money and no track record of success. That year they elected 52 Members of Parliament and four years later they were Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

They were able to do this because Preston Manning had the courage to think big. If the Wildrose Alliance elects a leader who shares that courage, they may yet be able to shock Albertans -- and Canada -- by unseating Canada's longest-serving government.


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Wildrose Alliance Makes The Scene

Alberta's number two conservative party makes bid for relevance

When Alberta's political history books are written, one may wonder how Ed Stelmach will be remembered:

As "Steady Eddie" Stemlach, or as Ed "Stalemate" Stelmach?

Political pundits and historians alike may be leaning toward the latter as the Progressive Conservative party lost its seat in Calgary-Glenmore, a riding the party has held since it first won power in 1971.

The loss is a shock, but a different shock from the one incurred in 2007 when the party lost Ralph Klein's former seat, Calgary-Elbow, to Liberal Craig Cheffins.

This time around, the Conservatives have lost out to the Wildrose Alliance, its conservative competition in Alberta, as Paul Hinman has chipped a little piece off of Stelmach's dominating majority government.

Just as was the case when Cheffins won a longtime Conservative seat away from them, Hinman's victory is being treated as a protest vote against Stelmach.

"Diane Colley-Urquhart took the bullet, but this was aimed at Ed," mused University of Calgary political scientist Duane Bratt.

Hinman seemed to echo Bratt's sentiment.

"I was talking to strong Tory supporters. They said, 'We need to deal with Ed, but we've got to remain loyal (to the party),'" Hinman said. "I said, 'Well you've got to make a choice because if you vote for Diane, it's a vote for Ed and you're endorsing his leadership.'"

Hinman insisted "that they're fed up with the way things are run, the divide and conquer from north to south, east to west, rural vs urban, one industry against another, people do not like it."

"We want an equal, level playing field across the province," Hinman added.

It seems that a lot of high-profile Albertans are giving the Wildrose Alliance a good hard look. Tom Flanagan and Phil Klein (father of Ralph Klein) are both supporters of the party.

Many of those people are looking at Hinnan's victory as the first step to big things -- maybe even supplanting the Progressive Conservatives as the government.

Bratt's U of C colleague Doreen Barrie, however, isn't in a hurry to exaggerate the by-election's significance.

"In byelections, you kick the tires and you don't damage the vehicle," she said. "I think people are being a bit premature when they see this as the first tremor in a political earthquake that's going to dispatch the Conservatives and install a new party."

"The Alliance is going to get a big bounce out of this because their leadership race is coming up in October," Barrie added. "It's going to attract more attention."

Which it will. But Liberals expected big things after their party's victory in Calgary-Elbow. In the next election the Conservatives reclaimed that seat with a victory by Alison Redford.

In other words, one electoral victory does not mean that the Wildrose Alliance has definitively arrived.

But it's a big step toward bigger things if they can maitnain their momentum.


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