The Wildrose Alliance and the Future of Alberta's Left

"Unite the left" campaign reemerges in Alberta

When Paul Hinman unexpectedly won the Calgary-Glenmore by-election, virtually everything was said to have changed for conservative politics in Alberta.

Amidst reports that up to 10 Tory MLAs may defect to the Alliance and that Guy Boutilier may join, the Alliance has jumped to second place in the polls.

Clearly, with all of this going on, the Wildrose Alliance clearly believes the Tories are vulnerable. But they aren't alone.

Speaking in Red Deer, Alvin Finkel, the co-chairperson of the self-styled group calling itself the Democratic Renewal Project has renewed calls for a united left-of-centre alternative to the Stelmach Tories, insists that uniting the Liberal, NDP and any willing independents is the only way to defeat them.

Moreover, Finkel must recognize that time is of the essence. If some kind of arrangement -- be it a merger or a Manning-esque electoral coalition -- isn't reached, the improving fortunes of the Wildrose Alliance could leave the provincial Liberals and NDP simply facing a new conservative monoliith, with the same dim prospects of defeating it as before.

Fellow DRP member Phil Elder argues that contention between the Alliance and PCs could lead to a tremendous opportunity for Alberta's left-of-centre parties.

Moreover, he takes NDP leader Brian Mason to task for arguing at the recent NDP convention that the party could overcome vote-splitting with the Liberals by working hard over future election campaigns.

"Did Mr Mason mean to imply (wrongly) that under his leadership NDPers have merely not worked long and hard enough to win?" Elder asks. "Or, after eleven consecutive Conservative majority victories, have Mason and the New Democrat executive not yet learned the obvious lesson that splitting the vote is fatal?"

Indeed, the NDP convention rendered cooperation between the two parties to be a dead issue, even after Hinman's unexpected victory.

The quickly-shifting political atmosphere in the province, courtesy of the Wildrose Alliance's improving fortunes, should provide further impetus for Brian Mason and the NDP to reconsider their options on forming an electoral coalition.

In Alberta, the political game could be changing for the first time in nearly forty years. Whether or not it changes in the Liberals' and NDP's favour will depend entirely on them.


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Alberta's New Opposition?

Tory defections to Wildrose Alliance rumoured

In matters pertaining to Albertan politics, Paul McLoughlin tends to have the inside track.

McLoughlin recently made a prediction that has hit Albertan politics like an earthquake: if Danielle Smith wins the leadership of the Wildrose Alliance on October 17, 10 Progressive Conservative MLAs will cross the floor to join them.

This would instantly make Danielle Smith the new leader of the official opposition, as the party would have as many as 12 MLAs. With Paul Hinman's recent victory in Calgary and Guy Boutilier, should he do as he has suggested he may and join the Alliance, the party would leapfrog the Liberal party (who currently have 9 MLAs) to become the province's new official opposition.

This would almost certainly be the end of Mark Dyrholm's leadership ambitions, as the party would literally have too much to lose by choosing him over Smith.

Of course, the Calgary Herald's Don Braid isn't buying the hype, even despite McLoughlin's strong track record -- his predictions tend to be correct.

Braid notes that even under the nadir of the party, under Don Getty, there was no mass exodus from the Progressive Conservative party.

Then again, there was no increasingly-relevant conservative competition in Alberta at that time. As the Wildrose Allaince continues to attract high-profile supporters, its newfound relevance is making it increasingly dangerous.

Is Revolution the Big Idea in Alberta?

Paul Hinman's victory brings expectations of rolling Tory heads

Albertan conservatives discontented with Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservative government seem to have a new star in town.

The town is Calgary. And the star is Paul Hinman.

If Doug Firby is to be believed, Hinman's victory over Progressive Conservative candidate Diane Colley-Urquhart indeed represents the first shot in what Dan Arnold describes as "Alberta's revolution" -- and leading the revolutionary are magnates of the Albertan oilpatch.

"[It is] a resounding indictment of besieged Premier Ed Stelmach, who has failed to win the hearts of Calgary’s oil patch power elite – the same group who backed Jim Dinning in the December 2006 leadership contest that Stelmach won," Firby writes. "Stelmach will now almost certainly face serious questions about his ability to continue much longer as political head of the province."

Firby notes that what truly makes Hinman's win special is that it was done without much of the traditional partisan infrastructure in place.

"All the more remarkable is that Hinman won the seat, even though he had lost the party’s only seat in the last general election, bringing to an ignominious end his largely ineffective term as leader of the Wildrose Alliance," Firby continues. "In fact, the party was still nominally leaderless when the grumpy voters of Calgary-Glenmore went to the polls this week."

Adam Daifallah worries that Hinman's victory may be the first step in a long-overdue "political realignment" in Alberta.

The Alberta Conservatives, who have governed the province uninterrupted since 1971, look tired, complacent and vulnerable like never before," he writes. "To finish in third place, behind the normally irrelevant Liberals, in a Calgary riding is a serious embarrassment."

"Alberta is Canada's most conservative province; Calgary the country's most conservative big city," Daifallah reasons. "This fact partly explains the loss: Ed Stelmach's Tories have abandoned any semblance of conservatism. (One could argue that conservatism in Alberta was abandoned after Ralph Klein's first term as premier, but I digress.)"

Daifallah notes that the leadership candidacy of Danielle Smith is particularly troubling to the Alberta PCs.

"There is a clear constituency for a fiscally conservative message in Alberta at present -- not just due to Stelmach, but also because of what's happening in Ottawa," Daifallah continues. "As standard bearer for conservatives' sense of discontent, Smith would instantly become the darling of the Canadian right and make the Wildrose Alliance a serious challenger for power."

In the wake of Hinman's victory, the Wildrose Alliance seems to be drawing more than just media attention -- speculation is that their caucus in the Legislature may double with the addition of spurned former Tory Guy Boutilier.

Boutilier was recently ousted from the PC caucus for being too vocal about the government dragging its feet on a retirement home in Fort MacMurray.

"He represents true conservative values," Boutilier said of Hinman. "Right now, I represent my constituents of Fort McMurray and true conservative values."

To compare Hinman's victory to the 1988 Deborah Grey victory in Beaver River that foreshadowed Preston Manning and the Reform party's 1993 arrival as a political force in Ottawa may be a bit of a stretch.

But in the wake of the victory, Hinman and whomever winds up leading the Wildrose Alliance may be well advised to take Preston Manning's advice to the founding convention of the Canadian Alliance -- "Think big".

Right now, the Wildrose Alliance is a party with no leader, little money, and no track record of success.

In 1993, the Reform party had a leader with little public recognition, little money and no track record of success. That year they elected 52 Members of Parliament and four years later they were Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

They were able to do this because Preston Manning had the courage to think big. If the Wildrose Alliance elects a leader who shares that courage, they may yet be able to shock Albertans -- and Canada -- by unseating Canada's longest-serving government.


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Wildrose Alliance Makes The Scene

Alberta's number two conservative party makes bid for relevance

When Alberta's political history books are written, one may wonder how Ed Stelmach will be remembered:

As "Steady Eddie" Stemlach, or as Ed "Stalemate" Stelmach?

Political pundits and historians alike may be leaning toward the latter as the Progressive Conservative party lost its seat in Calgary-Glenmore, a riding the party has held since it first won power in 1971.

The loss is a shock, but a different shock from the one incurred in 2007 when the party lost Ralph Klein's former seat, Calgary-Elbow, to Liberal Craig Cheffins.

This time around, the Conservatives have lost out to the Wildrose Alliance, its conservative competition in Alberta, as Paul Hinman has chipped a little piece off of Stelmach's dominating majority government.

Just as was the case when Cheffins won a longtime Conservative seat away from them, Hinman's victory is being treated as a protest vote against Stelmach.

"Diane Colley-Urquhart took the bullet, but this was aimed at Ed," mused University of Calgary political scientist Duane Bratt.

Hinman seemed to echo Bratt's sentiment.

"I was talking to strong Tory supporters. They said, 'We need to deal with Ed, but we've got to remain loyal (to the party),'" Hinman said. "I said, 'Well you've got to make a choice because if you vote for Diane, it's a vote for Ed and you're endorsing his leadership.'"

Hinman insisted "that they're fed up with the way things are run, the divide and conquer from north to south, east to west, rural vs urban, one industry against another, people do not like it."

"We want an equal, level playing field across the province," Hinman added.

It seems that a lot of high-profile Albertans are giving the Wildrose Alliance a good hard look. Tom Flanagan and Phil Klein (father of Ralph Klein) are both supporters of the party.

Many of those people are looking at Hinnan's victory as the first step to big things -- maybe even supplanting the Progressive Conservatives as the government.

Bratt's U of C colleague Doreen Barrie, however, isn't in a hurry to exaggerate the by-election's significance.

"In byelections, you kick the tires and you don't damage the vehicle," she said. "I think people are being a bit premature when they see this as the first tremor in a political earthquake that's going to dispatch the Conservatives and install a new party."

"The Alliance is going to get a big bounce out of this because their leadership race is coming up in October," Barrie added. "It's going to attract more attention."

Which it will. But Liberals expected big things after their party's victory in Calgary-Elbow. In the next election the Conservatives reclaimed that seat with a victory by Alison Redford.

In other words, one electoral victory does not mean that the Wildrose Alliance has definitively arrived.

But it's a big step toward bigger things if they can maitnain their momentum.


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