Can Anyone Say "Leader of the Opposition Jack Layton"

19% of Canadians -- and counting -- can

As the 2008 federal election progresses, it seems that Liberal leader Stephane Dion may be sho' nuff fucked.

With Stephen Harper's Conservative party comfortably in control of this election with 38% support, Dion's Liberals are polling at 23% -- a narrow lead over Jack Layton's NDP, who are polling at 19%.

"Although it is clear that the Liberals retain a small edge, on some days the difference is within the margin of error," said Ekos president Frank Graves.

In other words, the Stephane Dion Liberals are statistically tied with the NDP.

This comes as Dion gathers his former leadership rivals around him for campaign help.

Which he could certainly use. After all, as the campaign progresses, some of Dion's star candidates are nowhere to be seen -- in particular, Michael Ignatieff has inexplicably been a non-entity during this election campaign.

It seems even perennial insufferable douchebag Scott Reid can figure this one out.

Whether even the combined popularity of Ignatieff, Bob Rae, Ken Dryden and Martha Hall Findlay (among others) can save Dion at this point is anyone's guess. (You were going to make a "Kermit De Frog" joke here, weren't you? I have a sixth sense for these things. -Ed)

...Unless, of course, there's a reason why some of his higher-profile "team members" don't seem to be so eager to be seen with him.

An election result with the Liberals being punted from the status of Official Opposition in favour of the NDP would unquestionably turf any further leadership ambitions on Dion's behalf. The smart money says that any one of these individuals would absolutely love to play hero and lead the Liberal party out of the dredges of third-party status and back into the government benches.

Which would, of course, cast the Jamie Carroll affair in a whole new light.

Carroll, as some may recall, resigned as the national director of the Liberal party over outrage over comments he made about the backroom deals being made in the name of the leadership ambitions of Dion's rivals.

Of course, before anyone can even begin to worry about that, they have to worry about the current election. The Liberals still have almost a month to turn this thing around.

"If the alarm bells are not ringing already at Liberal headquarters, they should now," Graves says.

The question is: are those alarm bells being heard?

Jamie Carroll Controversy Takes Acrimonous Twist

Carroll to be sacrificed to power struggle?

That black rain cloud that has been following Stephane Dion around lately has apparently elected to throw yet another lightning bolt his way, as Pierre-Luc Bellerose, the Liberal candidate for Joliette has elected to leave the Liberal party in response to “poor leadership”, and over the Jamie Carroll controversy.

Carroll, who is reportedly imminently to be fired, provoked a good deal of controversy in past months when he publicly complained about Stephane Dion’s leadership opponents continuing to campaign against him in secret.

In Against the Current, Carroll is reported to have lived “in fear of an all-out drive against Dion” by his leadership opponents. “What they do in public doesn't bother me. It's the shit they do behind the scenes -- which I may not know they're doing -- that keeps me up at night,” Carroll reportedly said.

Numerous Liberals, including Michael Ignatieff and Denis Coderre, called for Caroll’s firing.

They saw their stated desires come closer to fruition recently as Carroll was accused of making anti-Quebec comments in a meeting.

Caroll reportedly responded to complaints about the lack of Quebeckers in Dion’s entourage by noting that “if Dion hired more Quebeckers, he’d have to hire more Chinese.”

Many Liberals have since added their voices to those demanding Dion sack Carroll, including Pablo Rodriguez and Robert Fragasso, who informed Liberal party president Marie Poulin that he would be demanding Carroll’s resignation.

"I called party headquarters to tell them we can't tolerate that in this party," Rodriguez announced. "I don't see how Mr. Carroll could remain in his role with comments like that."

Ironically, despite the alleged anti-Quebec nature of Carroll’s comments, many Quebeckers have asked Dion to keep him as the party director, leading to Bellerose’s resignation. For his part, Dion insists Carroll's comments were misinterpreted.

Predictably, the Conservatives have also moved to make political hay out of this internal Liberal party feud. “Carroll made some really bizarre, eye-raising remarks. Apparently Liberals themselves find them, at best, distasteful," said Conservative parliamentary secretary Jason Kenney. “He seems to be insulting two different groups at the same time, showing terribly bad judgment. This doesn't reflect well on Stephane Dion, who should hold this guy accountable."

Yet, this is one time the Conservatives would actually be better served to keep their mouths shut.

After all, for a party that has publicly prided itself on not acquiescing to special interests, criticizing Jamie Carroll for refusing to give into special interests comes across as hypocritical. Regardless of whether or not Carroll’s comments can be considered offensive to Quebeckers or Chinese-Canadians, Carroll’s refuting of special interests should actually be viewed as an encouraging sign.

Yet, in the meantime, the controversy poses quite the quandry for Dion's leadership. "At some point, you can't be too self-absorbed. You have to think of the whole party and I think that Mr. Dion better leave," Bellerose insisted.

No matter what decision Dion makes, he stands to lose. The power struggle within the Liberal party is clearly becoming a good deal more acrimonious, and when political parties become embroiled in such struggles, the leader stands to lose most.

In the meantime, Stephane Dion may want to invest in a good umbrella.