Will Bill Casey Be Vindicated in Cumberland-Colchester?

Independent Casey may have an edge in election

During the first few weeks of the 2008 federal election, it's become apparent that Cumberland-Colchester MP Bill Casey may have his work truly cut out for him.

Elected as a Conservative MP during the 2006 election, Casey was kicked out of the Tory caucus for voting against the 2007/08 budget.

Even though the Premier of Nova Scotia, Rodney MacDonald, eventually accepted a compromise on the issue of Equalization and the Atlantic Accord, Casey could not. He legitimately believed he was voting in the best interests of his constituents.

Even as the Conservatives parachuted Joel Bernard, a former provincial MLA in New Brunswick and policy advisor to Stockwell Day to run against Casey and the NDP nominated potential star candidate Brad Pye and has supported him heavily, Casey has drawn new supporters, including an endorsement from Green Party leader Elizabeth May.

The Green party even declined to run a candidate against Casey.

Yet, stripped of Conservative party resources and support, Casey faces a very solitary political climate. He even has to contend against funds raised during his tenure with the Conservative party -- funds that would have been raised for a preposed 2008 Bill Casey Tory campaign.

Yet even as he finds himself cast adrift in the shifting seas of political fortune, Casey has recieved hope from two unlikely sources.

First, from a unique poll conducted by the Fair Trade Community Cafe in Truro Nova Scotia. In a highly unscientific (yet fascinating) "tip poll", in which patrons declared their support for the candidates in their riding by depositing their servers' tip in a marked jar.

Casey came out on top in the poll with a total of $46.70. Pye came in second with a haul of $31.68. A Green Party candidate (yet unnamed) was favoured by $22.25. Bernard was bequeathed $20.23, and Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons earned $15.17.

It's hard to put solid political stock in such an implicitly unscientific poll.

It's easier to put solid political stock into the endorsement of numerous Nova Scotia provincial cabinet ministers: Education Minister Karen Casey (relationship undetermined), Transportation Minister Murray Scott and Service Minister Jamie Muir have stood behind Casey, even as their Premier clearly pulls for the federal Tories.

As the election progresses, it seems that Casey has support amongst his constituents, and friends in high places.

Even with all the disadvantages that tend to pile up against independent candidates, Bill Casey just may retain his riding in Cumberland-Colchester.

Tory Eyes Blind to the World Outside?

Conservatives thin on foreign policy thinkersm experience

As conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Georgia continue to dominate the established international agenda and advocates for intervention in Zimbabwe, Myanmar and the Sudan continue to demand attention, there is no question that foreign policy will be a hot-button topic in the new Parliament regardless of which party wins the election.

On that note, some may be surprised to find out that, since current Minister of Foreign Affairs David Emerson has declined to run for reelection, the incumbent Conservative party is shockingly short on foreign policy expertise.

Emerson, most will recall, took over the portfolio from Maxime Bernier, whose misadventures with classified information made him a tremendous liability to cabinet. Previous to Bernier's ascension to the portfolio -- which speculation suggests he was never had any interest in -- Peter MacKay handled the department fairly successfully before being suffled to National Defense to make up for the emerging of deficiencies of previous minister Gordon O'Connor.

MacKay has since managed the Department of Defense effectively. Which leads one to wonder whom, precisely, Prime Minister Stephen Harper would appoint to Foreign Affairs following what currently seems to be an impending election victory.

As Embassy points out, however, the Conservatives seem to be suffering from a shortage of experience and expertise on the Foreign Affairs portfolio, while their various opponents seem to be awash in it.

First and foremost, naturally, there's Liberal Michael Ignatieff. Ignatieff has written extensively on the topic of human rights, ethnic conflict, and the laws of war. He also has a tremendous amount of journalistic experience under his belt, harkening to his days with the BBC.

The NDP's answer to Michael Ignatieff is Michael Byers. Byers is a recognized expert on arctic sovereignty issues, and served as part of the Amnesty International legal team that sought Augusto Pinochet's conviction for crimes against humanity.

Also representing the NDP is Brad Pye, who has experience advancing democracy abroad with the National Democratic Institute (which, unsurprisingly, has deep ties to the American Democratic party, serving to further undermine NDP complaints about alleged importing of American political ideas by the Conservative party).

Also running for the Liberals is Dr Kirsty Duncan, a former panelist on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- expertise which clearly falls into line with Stephane Dion's Green Shift agenda.

The Liberal ticket will also feature Anne Park Shannon, a former civil servant in the Department of Foreign Affairs.

War Child Canada president Dr Eric Hoskins will also be running for the Liberals. Hoskins will almost certainly supplement Liberal Senator Romeo Dallaire's expertise on issues related to children in warzones, particularly child soldiers.

Attempting a comeback is former Liberal Defense Minister David Pratt. Pratt has been out of Parliament since his 2004 defeat at the hands of Conservative Pierre Poillevre.

With arguably little expertise to spread between Foreign Affairs and Defense, Pratt would provide the Liberals with yet another weapon to use against the Conservative government -- provided, of course that he can manage to unseat Tory Environment Minister John Baird.

The Green party also has a score of candidates promoting themselves as foreign policy experts -- foremost among them the Ottawa Group of Four.

The Conservatives are considered to have one foreign policy heavyweight in their fold -- Patrick Boyer, who served in various foreign affairs-related sectors under Brian Mulroney. However, Boyer is running against the aforementioned Michael Ignatieff, and is as such unlikely to win.

With so many formidable (or at least formidable-seeming) opponents to compete against, it's a near certainty that foreign policy will be a weakpoint for the Conservatives not only during this election, but also during the upcoming Parliament.

There is, of course, a long-term solution to this problem: the Tories need to cultivate stronger relationships with the Senior Civil Service in the Department of Foreign Affairs, and need to start cultivating stronger relationships with various international Non Governmental Organizations.

That the Conservative party is attracting so few potential candidates from NGOs perhaps underscores a fundamental lack of understanding about the emerging shape of the global political order: one in which governments cooperate with civil society in the formulation of foreign policy.

The Conservatives are also clearly lacking a relationship with academia. If the Conservatives truly want to be able to claim to have an eye on the outside world, it would pay to start recruting from those who actually study it.

Until the Conservative party can muster some candidates with legitimate foreign policy chops, it will be hard to view a Conservative foreign policy as comprehensive and outward-looking.